Social Security COLA for 2025 Set at 2.5%

News October 10, 2024 at 08:49 AM
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Illustration of Social Security card saying COLA: Since 1975

The Social Security Administration's 2025 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security beneficiaries will be 2.5%.

The annual COLA is based on inflation data for the third quarter, through September.

The consumer price index data for September, released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows inflation ran at 2.4% over the past 12 months before a seasonal adjustment and was up 0.2% during September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The 2025 COLA is smaller than 2024's increase of 3.2%, which followed a near-record increase of 8.7% in 2023.

A Near-Average COLA

The Social Security Administration uses average inflation in the third quarter, based on the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), to calculate the benefit adjustment for the following year.

The final 2.5% figure for 2025 is roughly in line with analysts' projections made during the year. It's also near the 2.6% average over the past 20 years.

September Inflation Highlights

The index for shelter rose 0.2% in September, while the index for food increased 0.4%. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75% of the monthly all items increase.

The food at home index increased 0.4% in September, and the food away from home index rose 0.3% over the month. The energy index fell 1.9% over the month, after declining 0.8% the preceding month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in September, as it did the preceding month.

Indexes which increased in September include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel and airline fares. The indexes for recreation and communication were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index's increase of 2.4% for the 12 months ending September is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.

Credit: David Palmer/ALM

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